How will 32" wheel acceptance impact other "standards"? Will the front wheel require a wider hub/longer axle to counteract excessive flex; will the stem stube/headset/bearings need widening to combat more leverage by the longer fork; will companies have another go at super boost to get more rear wheel stiffness and could that eventually herald the move to 13 speed? I am 179cm so am pretty much always between M and L and 32" will complicate that further it seems. I need to ride more to stop overthinking this.
This is interesting indeed.
Rims are getting better, wider alu and even carbon rims are becoming more affordable. This helps us stay on the same hub standard.
Some wheel builders may at least prefer hubs with taller spoke flanges. I don't know how much that helps, but it seems like it would help a bit at least.
I don't see a need for more gears, but 1x12 might go to a smaller chainring (from 32t to 30t?) and you'd get a bit more top speed if you kept the same 10/11t smallest cog.
Nextie is now making 350 gram 32" rims with 30 mm inner width.
The one serious 32" tire isn't particularly light, but serious racers will be able to build plenty capable wheels with available parts. It's going very quickly now with 32", such a difference from when 29" was introduced.
In 1999 the 29x2.1 WTB Nanoraptor was made available. A tire with no real side knobs. More a fast rear than a useful front. Now in 2025 we get a Maxxis 32x2.4 Aspen, based on a well respected tread. Carbon rims, frames, special stems...reception is night and day difference.
For the same brake power, you want an 8.7% larger brake rotor. So, from 180 to 203 mm or from 203 mm to... 220??).
I can see 32" being overall better for XC bikes in M, L, XL, etc.
For S bikes, it may well be a squeeze to get a comfortable front end with no toe overlap, shoe hitting the front tire. Some S riders might prefer a 32" bike with occasional toe overlap (that they can learn to avoid), adjusting their shoes to minimize it, than staying with 29".
With bikes still getting longer and slacker, 32" fits most adult riders comfortably already.
In Downhill, if you already preferred a 27.5" rear wheel, you'll keep that, but 32" front might still make you faster (providing good tire/rim/brakes).
Perhaps 29" will go the way of 27.5", becoming quite rare and for smaller size bikes mostly.
Kids as they grow go from 27.5" straight to 32".